It’s common sense: if there are fewer people around to buy houses, it’s going to be tougher to sell your house. That’s why population growth is essential to the real estate market in any city.
Luckily, Phoenix and its suburbs, including Scottsdale, are projected to see strong population growth in the next few decades. The city of Phoenix currently has nearly 1.6 million residents, and by 2030, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates it will grow to 2.2 million. The greater metropolitan area has more than 4 million residents, a figure that is expected to reach 6.3 million in 2030.
On an even larger scale, the State of Arizona estimates that by 2050, the total for the greater Phoenix area could explode to 9.3 million residents
Those estimates take into account current birth rate trends and anticipated immigration, though. If either falls off dramatically, Arizona could wind up with the same issues that Japan is now facing.
For some time now, Japan’s birth rate has been dropping. In fact, it has one of the lowest birth rates of any major country, and as a result, more than 8 million homes across Japan now sit empty. By 2033, that number could be nearly 21.5 million.
Germany faces a similar problem, but their housing market hasn’t suffered, thanks to their more open immigration policy. Immigrants need somewhere to live, and those young enough to start a family will fuel future population growth, so a housing crisis like Japan’s will likely be averted.
Immigration is a hotly debated topic these days, and there are pros and cons to the approaches politicians promote. However, that flow of potential homebuyers may just be crucial in keeping our housing marketing strong in the next decades.
For more information on the current real estate trends in Scottsdale and the Valley of the Sun in general, feel free to give me a call or send any questions via the form below. We're more than happy to keep you updated as our city keeps growing.